mercredi 29 juillet 2020

Is TESLA paying any dividends?

For those of you who know the stock, the answer might be obvious but I might to give a bit of context in the huge bubble the stocks navigate these days...

I did watch a remote conference yesterday by University of California, Irvine discussing the state of the economy, stock market, CORONA virus crisis and possible issues later next year and in 2021. The conference was held by professor Christopher Schwarz, very interesting.

A topic came up regarding why the stock market is so expensive; the argument offered was that the main alternative (US government bonds) offer very low yield (something like 0.59% at the moment for the 10 year note: source here) and by consequence people buy stocks (especially large caps or ETFs) because they make more on the devidends these stocks pay.

Back to TESLA stock; that theory does not apply to TESLA, of course, because our darling stock pays nothing in form of dividends. From TESLA's FAQ:

Tesla has never declared dividends on our common stock. We intend on retaining all future earnings to finance future growth and therefore, do not anticipate paying any cash dividends in the foreseeable future. 
Not only they pay nothing, but you will see no money from them in the foreseeable future.
So why are speculators rushing in? If is not dividends, is then something else? Something like... sweet?

Good luck
 

vendredi 24 juillet 2020

NKLA stock accelerates towards ZERO

And in the meantime, TESLA's younger sister Nikola sees his stock accelerating... not using batteries, but gravity. Towards the ground; ZIP; ZIRP; Empty; Zero!

TESLA stock bubble

TESLA stock next? Where are the Robins?

You ain't smoking anymore?

I hope you're doing ok folks

TESLA stock bubble

You're taking it easy today?

jeudi 23 juillet 2020

Elon wants TESLA not go bankrupt (or slightly profitable). Whatever...

Not very profitable! No, just a bit profitable.
After reporting yesterday earnings the big boss did comment the smashing earnings (or something equivalent) saying he does not want TESLA very profitable.

We need to, you know, not go bankrupt, obviously, that’s important....But we’re not trying to be super profitable, either, Musk said toward the end of Wednesday’s conference call.

I think just we want to be like slightly profitable and maximize growth and make the cars as affordable as possible, he concluded.

Read that again: WE NEED NOT GO BANKRUPT
It looks like this time, Elon didn't say much... That's a bit strange as he is a big mouth...

TESLA stock bubble


 We luv u Elon! And you know that!

mercredi 22 juillet 2020

TESLA earnings report

As I informed here, TESLA did report earnings today after the marker close.
The sales are down 5%, but TESLA managed to make a profit of 50 cents / share.
People are super enthusiats about this, stock is trading 6% in the after hours. Some are even sure the stock will join the S&P 500 (with more speculation coming down the road).

Elon Musk has done it again, beating Wall Street’s expectations for Tesla’s earnings significantly for the fourth quarter in a row.

Note that TESLA did not beat estimates; it literally smashed them!
I'll have more in the coming days about earnings...

In the meantime, here is the point of view of BofA analyst (certainly a dumb guy who's clueless about stocks compared to robinhood traders). 
In our view, the $1,500+ stock price is not supported by fundamentals, with valuation driven largely by momentum and low rates." Among 10 reasons to remain cautious on Tesla, the analysts said that while volume growth is real, it is constrained by capacity expansion and capital availability; the EV market is likely smaller than appreciated; and Tesla's profitability and cash flow "are not great or consistent, and are major risks.
The EV market is smaller than appreciated! Well, that's quite a surprise!
And on the view lots of people have on TESLA stock as a tech company, compared to FANG stocks. 
 
while Tesla is often compared to technology companies and industry disruptors like the FAANG stocks, Tesla's business model is capital intensive, which "makes its business much less scalable than that of a technology company.
In the meantime, the litlle brother Nikola stock keeps going lower.

NIKOLA stock bubble

How much the TESLA stock price by end of the week?
Place your bets. 2000$, 3000$?


 

mardi 21 juillet 2020

Bubbles by definition pop

By definition, every bubble will burst.
TESLA stock will be no exception to that rule. Predicting when that will happen is impossible; we will know only after it does. 

Here is a serious analysis by Hoisington Management on the current state of affairs: economic recessions, corporate and sovereign debt and their implications, etc.

This excelent blog resumes it well, pointing out the stock market unprecedent speculation - and TESLA stock is leading the charge together with other tech stocks which are highly overvalued.

Nearly all economists expect a huge jump in inflation associated with the Fed's massive balance sheet expansion and government fiscal stimulus.

Actually, inflation is easy to find. Look no further than the stock and bond markets.

The Fed's balance sheet expansion coupled with trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus (both unprecedented) has resulted in stock market speculation also at unprecedented levels exceeding the housing bubble boom in 2008. 
Enjoy reading


Long term bull case for TESLA?

I did write about the 7 short term risk as seen by this analyst.
On the longer term, this guy is bullish on TESLA stock. The arguments are quite lite, to say the least.

  1. He likes found-run companies. Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg are driven by a lot more than money. No shit! I suppose Elon is the same...
  2. Tesla is like Amazon in its early days. When I told you this is not a car manufacturer but a technology behemoth you didn't believe me! Here you have it, a guy smarter than me is telling you so. TESLA is the next Amazon, a trillion dollar company (add by me: making no money).
  3. Tesla is producing cars at scale. 350.000 per year to be more precise versus 10 millions for Toyota. The analyst believes one day (he does not say what year but it could be by the next century) TESLA will produce as many cars as GM and Ford; in the meantime, waiting TESLA to produce those cars, his market valuation is 10x that of GM (you read that right: 10 TIMES!)
  4. Tesla is leading the way to a humanity with less carbon energy. I wont stop much here as this thesis imo is so weak; scratching the surface a bit shows that battery producing, recharging and recycling is not that carbon-free. 
  5. TESLA stock catalysts: electric truck (good luck with that one), an electric roadster (roadster car markets is not growing that much overall - I know a thing or two about roadsters) - I think you can forget about this one btw, a model Y SUV - the competition will be tough on this segment as there are so may electric SUVs coming out, I did post a few on this blog as well. So this argument is very weak for the long term bull case.
  6. Wall Street is skeptical about TESLA. The idea is that more speculation is in the cards. I dont know how to read this one; judging by stock price action I tend to say people gambling with the stock are dumb investors; but it does not mean professional analysts will jump in with both feet; there are gamblers on WallStreet for sure, but serious investors are managing risk. I dont think TESLA stock is a good risk/reward investement. I might be wrong however.
So this is the analyst's long term case for TESLA stock.
I find this analysis a complete crap.
And you?



lundi 20 juillet 2020

EV car maker Nikola stock cratering

Like our darling TESLA stock, Nikola - another EV car maker losing money - sees its stock cratering. And rather quickly. This stock is probably headed towards zero!

Nikola stock bubble


Of course, this follows a period of stupid speculation.

Overbought on all periods

TESLA stock is overbought over daily, weekly and monthly periods.
Does it matter? Probably not!

TESLA stock bubble

TESLA bubble




dimanche 19 juillet 2020

Robinhood traders & TESLA speculation

A funny article on Yahoo Finance which shows how crazy these milenial traders are.
Last Monday when the stock reached 1800$, the stock was been bought by retail speculators like there is no tomorrow.

Almost 40,000 Robinhood accounts added shares of the automaker during a single four-hour span on Monday, according to website Robintrack.net, which compiles data on the investing platform that’s much beloved by day trading millennials.

Who are those Robinhood traders? 

The name Robinhood traders comes from speculators using the Robinhood platform to trade equities, cryptos, ETFs, etc.
Robinhood is a fintech startup; it is not very clear how they make money and some of its methods are controversial. I dont care about that, they do what everyone else does these days... Disrupting something (traditional brokers?)...  

Now back to traders; during the lockdown people were staying home and it seems they did look for get rich quick tricks in the stock market; Google helps with that no problem, so lots of them discovered the Robinhood platform. 3 million accounts have been opened on that platform in the first months of this year.

Amid challenging times and market volatility, we’re humbled that people are turning to Robinhood to participate in the markets and build their financial future. We added more than three million funded accounts so far this year, and we’re grateful for the opportunity to serve each customer.
That's very good for Robinhood platform and for some highly speculative stocks like our darling TESLA stock.

As you alreay know, US government sent checks to americans during the lockdown. It looks like a big chunk of those money, especially from people not in the need, were spent on buying stocks. That can be seen in this table (CNBC article)

COVID checks

So this is another ingredient which probably did help with the TESLA stock stupid rise.

And lately, it seems that casino and sport gamblers did try their hand in the stock market because of casinos and sport events being closed and cancelled.

Ok, back to Robinhood traders; these people have no understanding of the markets, how they work, what's the value of a stock, etc. That's ok because these days those metrics don't seem to matter. These people basically trade... hype.
You probably know that some known brands went broke during the COVID crisis; one such company is Hertz. The Robinhood traders did start speculating in Hertz stock following the news as you can see on Robintrack (a website which tracks Robinhood positions).

Hertz stock speculation

 While that does not make much sense, there you have it as shown by the green line: the number of Robinhood traders holding Hertz stock.

The poor understanding of some complicated products by these speculators can have dire consequences sometimes, like for this Robinhood trader who did commit suicide.

Like so many others, Kearns took up stock investing during the pandemic, signing up with Millennial-focused brokerage firm Robinhood, which offers commission-free trading, a fun and easy-to-use mobile app and even awards new customers free shares of stock. During the first quarter of 2020, Robinhood added a record 3 million new accounts to its platform. As the Covid-19 stock market swung wildly, Kearns had begun experimenting, trading options. His final note, filled with anger toward Robinhood, says that he had “no clue” what he was doing. 

In fact, a screenshot from Kearns’ mobile phone reveals that while his account had a negative $730,165 cash balance displayed in red, it may not have represented uncollateralized indebtedness at all, but rather his temporary balance until the stocks underlying his assigned options actually settled into his account.


 Robinhood trading is a new phenomenen but probably it won't last; flipping stocks around won't make these people billionaires like Elon the boss. It takes decades if ever!
Institutional investors with deep pockets might take advantage of these Robinhood traders and bet against them. All data is available out there on Robintrack.net for them to take advantage of it.

Ok, how about TESLA stock? What relation Robinhood traders have with our stock?
Here is a chart which might give and indication of where these dumb speculators stand in relation to TESLA stock. As you can see, they are going GA-GA over it 😎

TESLA stock holding by Robinhood speculators


Good luck!

samedi 18 juillet 2020

EV car makers competing TESLA

Here are a few EV car manufacturers who compete with TESLA (yes I know TESLA will kill everybody and even more, but just in case...)

  • Polestar. This is a new brand but it will share knowledge and parts with Volvo. Polestar and Volvo  are owned by Geely, a chinese car company who bought Volvo during the financial crisis of 2009 when the Sweedish car manufacturer was in bad shape. Volvo is a serious car manufacturer and Polestar, imo can become a serious name in the EV space.

TESLA EV competitor


  • Faraday Future. This is a troubled brand with many annoucements (2016 CES in Las Vegas) and very little follow up. They position in the high-end SUV EV space. This thing might dissapear rather soon (I dont think they own some technologic advance, I might be wrong however). 

  • Nio Motors. This is a startup trying to survive. My understand is they position for mass EV production, for now they did not manage to deliver. They did start selling 2 SUV models in China. Since 2014, analysts estimate this company lost more than 6$ billions. Unprofitable companies are very loved by speculators these days. Like for TESLA, the stock price wen parabolic since March 2020 on stupid speculation (700% increase). My take is this company  wont survive. Lately, the stock did start cratering and will probably accelerate towards ZERO!
NIO stock bubble


  • Xpeng. It is a chinese startup offering a crossover with lots of connectivity in it. Based on China Passenger Association data, the G3 Xpeng model is the best-selling China EV model from a new company (whatever that means). Check out the G3 2020 model.

  • MG. This is an old british car manufacturer which was bought by chinese investors. The company did put on the market a very interesting EV SUV, the MG ZS: european standards at a very competitive price, below 25.000$. It is probably the best quality/price EV car you can buy today. This model will maks some waves. Watch this video for a review of MG ZS


As you can see, there is competition on the market for TESLA already and new comers are preparing to enter the market. If you think TESLA will dominate the EV market, you're dreaming. And I did not list the traditional car makers which will add to their product lines EV models (Ford, GM, BMW, Volkswagen, Audi, Porsche, Jaguar, etc.)

Good luck speculating!


jeudi 16 juillet 2020

TESLA will report next Wednesday

Its earnings season and Elon will make a show of that again 😄

Here is what analysts expect:

Earnings: Consensus from 33 Wall Street analysts polled by FactSet calls for a GAAP loss of $1.10 cents a share, which would compare with a GAAP loss of $2.31 a share in the first quarter of 2019. The analysts expect an adjusted loss of 36 cents a share, which would compare with an adjusted loss of $1.12 a share a year ago.

Estimize, a crowdsourcing platform that gathers estimates from Wall Street analysts, as well as buy-side analysts, fund managers, company executives, academics and others, is expecting an adjusted profit of 6 cents a share.

Revenue: The analysts surveyed by FactSet expect sales of $5.0 billion for Tesla, down from $6.4 billion a year ago. Estimize sees revenue of $5.3 billion for the company.

Here is what I expect:

Earnings do not matter; TESLA stock will go up!

See you next Wednesday!


TESLA - the short term risks

Here is an analysis - if you can call that an analysis - on a general financial web site (read: for retail traders like us who are presented already priced in crap).

This guy looks smart (because he was on top of the bubble) but now he kind of thinks there is some risk around TESLA stock. Not 1, but 7 of them.
Fair enough, here we go:

  1. TESLA stock looks pricey
    • No bubble, just pricey 😁. That's risk numero uno!
    • If you go over the article, the guy compares it with GM and Ford; dont know why... as I said, this is a category killer (i.e. it kills categories) and not a car manufacturer (whatever this is, we dont care for now...)
    • He mentions that last Monday alone - 3 days ago - 40.000 Robinhood traders (aka milenial speculators) did buy TESLA shares. No shit!
  2. TESLA may raise money
    • Well that happened before and did not stop TESLA stock to go parabolic. For me this is not a problem. 
    • They can raise 100$ trillions, stock will go up!
  3. The electric vehicle industry seems bubbly
    • Again, nothing to do with TESLA stock which is a killer of something...
    • Dont care about its industry, this thing goes by its own
  4. TESLA faces execution risk
    • Translation: they dont really master the car building process, quality, etc.
    • Again, not a problem as this is a technoloy behemoth and not a car company
  5. S&P inclusion probably priced in
    • I already talked about that in a previous post, some analysts expect the stock to be included in the S&P 500 index and to rise a further 60% or so (dont know how they calculate that; probably they are just guessing)
    • So on this point I dont know, this guy is smarter than I am so I pass...
  6. Market looks toppy
    • Maybe but that is not a problem because central banks administer it
    • Read: a few more trillions will be thrown at markets if they go down
    • So no risk here!
  7. Musk is showing hubris of his own
    • We did cover a bit his attitude towards shorts
    • I do understand the guy is arrogant (he adds a few billions to his fortune per day), so he feels high; on top of that, he smokes pot, so we have an explanation here 😎
    • Hence no risk on this point...

There you go!
What do you think of that super analysis?


Former GM vice president on TESLA

You can watch a video on Bob Lutz, former vice president of General Motors, talking about TESLA.
I suppose this guy knows 2 or 3 things about the car business, so it's always interesting listening.
He looks stupid right now because TESLA stock did the opposite of what he was predicting.

Then again, RobinHood traders (aka milenial speculators) know better than this guy. 

On the other hand, TESLA does not seem to be valued as a car manufacturer but rather a crap disruptive company, or better yet, a category killer (whatever that shit means).


TESLA stock bubble


Good luck speculating

mercredi 15 juillet 2020

mardi 14 juillet 2020

New Ford Bronco

This has nothing to do with the TESLA stock but we stay in the car manufacturing business 😀

The other day Ford announced the arrival of its long awaited Ford Bronco for 2021.
Here is is, a very cool SUV (next to the old model)


Ford Bronco

Ford Bronco


What do you think?

And btw, there is a new EV car manufacturer - Fisker - listed on the public exchange through a merger operation. They plan bringing a new electric SUV on the market which might look like so

Fisker Ocean


I know Fisker as a design company; its founder Henrik Fisker did draw the Aston Martin DB9, BMW Z8 and a couple of other beautiful models.

Enjoy

Is TESLA a car company or a tech behemoth?

On this blog I did compare TESLA with other car companies like Toyota and Volkswagen.
Those are true car manufacturers.

But maybe this comparison makes little sense. Judging by its stock reaction - if a judgement can be made during a hyperbolic bubble move like we see these days - it acts more like the Nasdaq index rather than VW stock.

That is, it joins the select club of "this time is different" and "disruptive" crap technology stocks did enjoy in the last 2 years or so.

This article tries to explain (although I find the arguments very lite) how TESLA is actually a technology company; thus making sense (huh???) of its current valuation.

“We value [Tesla] like other category killers,” Osha said in a note to clients.

“It is true that TSLA makes cars, while [Apple] and [Nvidia] do not, and it is reasonable to point out that those companies are not perfect comps,” Osha added.

“What is clear is that comparing TSLA to ex-growth auto companies that are losing market share and losing money is not useful. We believe that TSLA is a category killer that is still early in the process of building a dominant position in electric vehicles, and the stock needs to be valued in comparison to other similarly successful companies.”

“We have noticed the comp group for Tesla has changed materially as well,” Jonas added.

“No longer is Tesla being compared to legacy automakers that trade at 1/5th or 1/10th of Tesla's market cap. Increasingly, we’re having discussions with investors who want to talk about Tesla valuation vs. the world’s most successful and highly valued tech firms.

This thing is not disruptive anymore, it's a category killer!
No kidding!

What do you think of that bullshit? What technology TESLA owns or develops to justify the stupid behaviour of its stock?


TESLA stock bubble - Its different this time

Here is a podcast on SeekingAlpha financial web site discussing TESLA stock bubble.

I have no idea who that guy Chaikin is - an experienced market technician for a couple of decades - but he discusses the following.

Small update: that stock market technician speaking in the podcats is the guy who invented the Chaikin technical oscilator; so for sure he knows a few things about the technical analysis.
  • TESLA enters S&P 500 Index later this month so that excites everybody. Of course those who are not very excited are stupid (not joining the bubble)
  • How Elon is making fun of short sellers by selling pants on TESLA web site
  • COVID-19 impact on markets is not an issue because central banks are pumping money into the bubble like crazy
  • This is not like the 1999 stock market bubble, only a small correction in S&P 500 towards 2800 points than up we go
  • All those money will go into mega-cap stocks (Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple & the likes)
  • Coming earnings season will be ugly but that is not a problem either
  • Why these names are getting this kind of crazy push? A lot of bullshit coming out of the podcast, but the main argument is "momentum trading". There you have it!
As a conclusion "this is going until it stops going"; we did hear this in 2008 from Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince. Exactly the same crap at that time.

Chuck Prince on Monday dismissed fears that the music was about to stop for the cheap credit-fuelled buy-out boom, saying Citigroup was “still dancing”.

The Citigroup chief executive told the Financial Times that the party would end at some point but there was so much liquidity it would not be disrupted by the turmoil in the US subprime mortgage market.


Here are some of those charts mentioned in the podcast: Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA
What's amazing about the recommendations these guys are making is after these stocks have ran up 400% or so; I wonder how these stocks will do in the next 3 to 5 years. Can they quadruple again from here? Of course! Remember, some of these stocks - Apple - are more than 1$ trillion market cap!


NASDAQ bubble


NASDAQ bubble

NASDAQ bubble


Speculate with a smile!


The most crowded trade ever

I dont give much importance to surveys as I find the world today full of contradictions (I would like to have a better understanding of where from that is coming; I suppose its education to a certain degree, some of it from a wrong feeling of safety - "nothing bad can happen to me", and some is generational, for the rest of it dont know). We say one thing and do the opposite; many of us say one thing and act in the opposite direction...

Ok, so fund managers say the technological speculation is the most crowded ever. This fact should make them act by having a higher degree of risk included in their capital allocation. The opposite happens; they throw gas on the fire as well.

Bank of America’s monthly fund manager survey finds 74% say long U.S. tech stocks is the most “crowded trade.” That is the highest reading since the question started being asked in Dec. 2013.

Crowded or not, they are still overweight the tech sector, along with the pharmaceutical sector.


For sure the TESLA stock is part of that crowded trade (to say the least)!

Well done!

It's coming baby...

Here are the robinhood men at it again...

I'll write down a post on who robinhood traders are (as I understand it) 😃
They look like this guy

TESLA stock bubble


I keep my target of 2500$ by the end of this week.
In the meantime, get your popcorn ready!


TESLA stock bubble


Dont let it down boys, keep pushin'!

Unprofitable TESLA valued more than Toyota & VW combined

If that is not american market mania, I dont know what it is.

Here is an article on Yahoo! Finance where you can read TESLA is worth more than Toyota & Volkswagen combined! 

As a reminder - I think it does not count today - each of Toyota & VW are selling more than 10 million cars a year (that is more than 20 million car combined).

Source here.

And one more thing; both those companies have electric cars in their offering. And some models are high end - think Porsche Taycan and Audi e-Tron - or mid range - like Toyota's C-HR.

TESLA stock bubble


TESLA stock bubble


TESLA stock bubble


Are you enjoying the mania so far? I hope so...

TESLA stock & market speculation mania

I went over this article the other day (because of course it speaks about the TESLA bubble). I did think about the content a bit and wonder whether the market mania is in front of us or in the rear mirror?

The article was written back in February 2020 just before the society was locked because of COVID-19 virus. At that time, the TESLA stock was around 900$ per share. And the article was suggesting that because of what people see on CNN about the TESLA stock price action, they will go out and buy like crazy. He has no follow up about the TESLA stock price; I did scan the web site and did not find anything. As a side note, looking at the articles that author The Phoenix is posting, I think he's making them up as the stock market goes (like most news websites actually), buy anyway back to TESLA stock...
Here is the chart based on which that guy was suggesting a stock market mania is coming.




TESLA stock bubble


What followed with the stock was a drop from 900$ to around 400$; so a mini crash of about 50%. Here is the chart.

TESLA stock crash

Since then, the TESLA stock went on a craze like there is no tomorrow; the prices was multiplied by 4.5x in a span of 3 months. That is quite something for a company which losses money quarter after quarter...

In the big scheme of things, that guy was right I would say. Gambling investors went out and bought the stock based solely on what they see on CNN regarding one stock price. That is reminiscent of what was happening during the Internet stock bubble in 2000; zombie companies with a shitty web site were seeing their stock price triple in a couple of months...

The question than is: Is the mania in CNN news stocks ahead of us or behind us? I dont know how far this sucker can go, but I'm sure of 2 things:
  • We are in a huge bubble similar to Internet in 2000
  • At least some of the crazy mania reflects alreay in the price of stocks like TESLA's (and there are many others)

Viva la speculationes!






lundi 13 juillet 2020

Why oh my?

There is a bit of reversal today in TESLA stock; that's ok I think because bullish speculators will get together tomorrow and throw a party!

Common toros, you can do better than that!

TESLA stock bubble

Thanks and luv you!

Last Friday, I did make a little bit more than 6$ billions.
Well, the weekend was good and today I just made 6$ billions more thanks to you...

Elon Musk


Never give up, just buy that stock!

Quicker than Elon...

I was questioning whether bulls can push the TESLA stock at 2000$ by the end of this week here.
Well, later within the day we arrived at 1800$.

Because the chinese market (I suppose?!) grows 50% every week and 200% per month, I will raise my price target to 2500$ by the end of this week and 5000$ per TESLA share by the end of the month.

Later this year I think 15.000$ per share is a piece of cake!

TESLA stock bubble


Never give up, buy no matter the price!






2000$ per share this week?

I think it can be done with speculators hot as french fries!
Dont give up my friends, lets do it! The chances are great for this week...

TESLA stock bubble


Dont give up speculating! Ever!

samedi 11 juillet 2020

David Einhorn on TESLA - a lot of horse shit

David Einhorn is a very active investor, he made timely calls on Lehman Brothers dismiss in 2009.
He's also a short seller and is one of the most vocal short on TESLA.
It looks like he got burned recently as TESLA stock bubble accelerated. Anyway, IMO it is worth listening and tracking what David Einhorn says, I think he has a point.

As a general note, I do think those 20$ billions of shorts on TESLA stock at the moment according to S3 Partners are a bet made by professionals. Remember those people are PROFFESIONAL money managers; they are wrong sometimes, but quite ofthen I think their bets are made with some degree of risk management, informed bets regarding company financial situation, market research and perspectives, etc. The average buyer of TESLA shares (Elon Musk enthusiastic geeks) is not that well informed; these people are rather gambling than investing. They make money from time to time, some are even make this for a living and are good at it, but in a huge bubble like the one in TESLA stock, those who are building large short positions are professionals. These people are not placing bets for the sake of betting; they are out there to make serious money. 

I read that TESLA stock is going up because of a huge short squeeze due to those betting against the stock. Look, when a stock goes down is because of the shorts; when it goes parabolic it because of the shorts. I will put in a next post a couple of charts which shows that basically many technology companies are being chased out at a moment and see their stock going parabolic and completely detached from reality; it is because of shorts? All of them? Give me a break...

So here is David Einhorn's take on TESLA crap. That presentation is from about a year ago.



Good luck speculating in TESLA stock!

TESLA stock completely detached from reality

Tesla has a market cap double that of german car maker VW.
VW did sell more than 10 million cars last year; Tesla sold less than 400k cars same year.
Something must give; either TESLA is selling a huge amount of cars - and rather soon - or the stock will go down hard!

Go figure...


Happy speculation folks!

Elon's net worth higher than Warren's

Friday 10/07/2020 alone, Elon made 6$ billions on paper as TESLA stock rose a bit more than 10%.
BTW, I find days when TESLA stock rises less than 10% boring...

Allright, back to net worth; according to Bloomberg as of last Friday, Elon Musk became the 7th most rich guy on the planet, surpassing Warren Buffet. That's quite interesting for a computer developer guy a few years ago, running an unprofitable car business to take out in net wealth an 80 years old very successful investor who's running a conglomerate of diversified successful and strong businesses portofolio via its own company Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

I won't go over Warren's success as an investor, everybody knows him. Just to say how superficial the world is today. Geeks from Silicon Valley are becoming the healthiest business men on the planet despite running unprofitable businesses (unicorns of all sorts of disruptive crap)...

And btw, Elon is not a Warren fan (how Warren makes money via capital allocation). Our boss is a DO-er, he manufacturs things. For now, it works.

Check it out here:


What about Warren, what is he thinking about TESLA as an investment?
Well, Warren never invested in TESLA and he says he is not interested in the stock.
You can read it here.

Tesla stock bubble


TeslaStock watch

What are the chances for TESLA stock to crash?

This article from MarketWatch applies a Harvard research in trying to figure out what chances are there for the TESLA stock cratering.

Will it happen? Nothing is sure. Can the stock triple from here? Of course...

In the meantime, this basic comparison between how far a stock is stretched compared to S&P 500 index has the TESLA crashing risk at above 80%.  Stock is stretched more than 300% compared to S&P.

Back in February 2020, the same comparison had the TESLA stock going down at 80% chance. At the time, stock was 150% more stretched compared to S&P.  TESLA went down 60% then - it was COVID but that doesnt really matter in a huge bubble; things can turn the other way at any time, for instance while you're sleeping. 

So here it goes

MarketWatch


Good luck speculating!


vendredi 10 juillet 2020

Analysts covering TESLA stock

This article does not make a list of who's covering, what prices each has for the stock, arguments of each as those can be easily found on financial web sites.

I just want to point out what looks like a competition to raise the prices for most bubblicious stocks out there, namely TESLA and Amazon.

Other analysts - JP Morgan - have it lower, below 300$.

The reasons vary from better demand than other car makers, China market, selling carbon credit, etc.
This sounds so cliche in my opinion; we can hear the same things for every multi-national behemoth selling into international markets. Why is China market better for Tesla but not for Audi? Or Porsche Taycan? Or Jaguar I-Pace? Those are high-end electric vehicles...

I did promise in a previous post to look at how many cars TESLA is selling, how much does it make per sold cars, who are it competitors. Actually, there is little value in trying to look into those imo.
You can try explaining whatever you want for a stock, when its in a bubble it's just that: an emotional play by crazy people playing casino; I think most dont know what they're doing. So instead of explaining why it goes up or down, you just need to let it play out. When it will play out? I dont know, nor does anyone else; including Morgan Stanley.

Some analyste are more cautious; will they be right? I have no idea, but neither JP Morgan...

Look, I will go out and put a price targe on TESLA to 5000$ by the end of July 2020.
My estimate is not worse nor better than Morgan Stanley's.
What it is based on? I could cite " the boss smoking grass and growing some more hair" (does this work btw?) but as I said, it does not matter today...

Elon


TeslaStock watch

50% gains in 2 weeks

How about that?
Will the next 2 be so profitable like the previous 2 weeks?
Thats basically free money, doing nothing and waiting to rain over you with dollar bills...

So now you know why you're buying, to make some pocket money 😂



TeslaStock watch

7x your investment in a year

If you bought a TESLA share 1 year ago, when the price was around 200$ you made 7x that investment at around 1400$ today.

That's simply astonishing for a big cap like TESLA. It works for pink stocks and small caps but to my knowledge for a big company it is quite rare... except in a bubble!

Here you go



TeslaStock watch

mardi 7 juillet 2020

And climbing...

Another day in paradise... 
Relentless push higher, no respiro!

How ya' feelin', you Elon fan? Lucky? 😄


lundi 6 juillet 2020

George Soros bubble theory applies to TESLA stock

Bye Elon, hello George!

In this video the guy tries to explain the bubble ideas as detailed by George Soros in case of TESLA stock.

I agree on all points and I'm convinced this stock is in the mother of all bubbles.

Give it a go, its educational.



The loose global monetary policy & TESLA stock

In a previous post I was asking who are the buyers of the TESLA stock at these outrageous bubble levels and whether the central banks action play a role in that.

Seeing headlines like this on financial web sites I cannot stop thinking the global monetary policy plays a big role in the speculators behaviour. 



Except that TESLA stock bubble which is clearly getting fueled by those policies is not really an underperforming stock. What the guy writing that article forgot to say is "... and already bubble stocks are getting even more inflated".

Where the TESLA stock madness can stop? I have no idea nor does anyone else.

TeslaStock watcher



100% away from its 200 DMA

The speculators favorite stock bubble is more than 100% away from its 200 day moving average; which usually offers a sort of support during bull markets and stocks fluctuate around it... We already had this kind of crazy run on the stock 6 months ago followed by a steep correction.

In the meantime, it looks like volumes are less important than they were end of 2019; if that matters ...

I know that during bubble times, not much matters. And it is of course the case of the TESLA stock today.



Happy speculation!


Week starts strong for our baby stock :)

The speculators are out in full swing.
6% premarket for our bubble TESLA stock today.



Simply amazing! This stuff will make the Bitcoin look silly in comparison 😁
Crazy stuff & crazy people...

This will end up very badly for the last pigeons buying the stock. In the meantime however, those who are nimble can make some money.

People absolutely love playing with fire...

TeslaStock watcher




dimanche 5 juillet 2020

Even Elon Musk thinks the TESLA stock is too high...

If you follow TESLA stock this is no news for you, but I do post it here for eternity 😁

Even the big boss believes the stock is way too high; this was about 2 months ago... At the time, the stock was a bit above 800$.
Of course, the speculators dont care about what Elon thinks. They know better where the stock must be! And 2 months later it is 50% higher! Absolutely amazing!






TeslaStock watcher


So who's buying the TESLA stock?

I was asking a question in my previous post on Who's buying the TESLA stock today?

While I probably wont find an exact answer to the question, I do think a lot of buying is coming from large speculators like hedge funds and to a certains extent from retail gamblers.

I do read 2-3 economic blogs and this weekend I did came across this blog post which mentions the TESLA stock.
So who are the buyers of TESLA stock?
  • Retail investors via ETFs of course
  • Big speculators who are buying and selling hyped stocks
    • In the above blog post a chinese hedge fund is using a strategy which buys today a couple of hot stocks and sells them tomorrow for a profit
    • They operate on the chinese stocks (so not related to TESLA stock)
    • That seems to work for them as they made a little bit above 100% out of that strategy this year. Wow! That is amazing giving the difficult conditions we have in the economy and the stock market volatility!
    • I'm sure there are similar large speculators operating in the US markets
  • There are also Las Vegas gamblers like the guy in the above blog post
    • Out of job and no income at the moment (probably because of the COVID crisis)
    • No understanding of how the products he's buying/selling work
    • He's gambling with Apple and Tesla stocks successfull

Are there other investor profiles buying the TESLA stock bubble? Probably yes (banks, short term traders, robots operated by hedge funds, etc.)

A couple of more questions:
  • Where from is the money coming? Savings? Borrow some at the bank to speculate?
  • Are central banks actions for something? I see many pointing the finger in that direction, but to what extent?
  • Why all these people behave with no worries at all regarding their money?
  • Does it matter where from the money is coming?

Well, I'm not a bubble expert but I did see a few in the last year and talked to people who were invested in the middle of a bubble like Bitcoing for instance. They will find all sorts of arguments (either complicated, stupid, funny, whatever) to convince you they are having it right and you dont get it.

These of course are signs to be cautios regarding the market you're looking at; but you're looking like a fool and you're a bit alone against everybody. 

However, when the bubble popped like it was the case for the Bitcoin, the guy swears I will never touch that thing again; unfortunately it was too late for him.

There is another thing which manifests in a bubble; the supporters of the bubble look very smart and the opponents stupid. Not liking TESLA today makes you look like a fool.

I will look shortly at the TESLA products, how much money it makes from those and how that compares to competition.

In the meantime, another intersting week for the TESLA stock is ahead of us. Will they pump it higher? 😎


TeslaStock watcher




Is Nikola a fraud?

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