mardi 21 juillet 2020

Long term bull case for TESLA?

I did write about the 7 short term risk as seen by this analyst.
On the longer term, this guy is bullish on TESLA stock. The arguments are quite lite, to say the least.

  1. He likes found-run companies. Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg are driven by a lot more than money. No shit! I suppose Elon is the same...
  2. Tesla is like Amazon in its early days. When I told you this is not a car manufacturer but a technology behemoth you didn't believe me! Here you have it, a guy smarter than me is telling you so. TESLA is the next Amazon, a trillion dollar company (add by me: making no money).
  3. Tesla is producing cars at scale. 350.000 per year to be more precise versus 10 millions for Toyota. The analyst believes one day (he does not say what year but it could be by the next century) TESLA will produce as many cars as GM and Ford; in the meantime, waiting TESLA to produce those cars, his market valuation is 10x that of GM (you read that right: 10 TIMES!)
  4. Tesla is leading the way to a humanity with less carbon energy. I wont stop much here as this thesis imo is so weak; scratching the surface a bit shows that battery producing, recharging and recycling is not that carbon-free. 
  5. TESLA stock catalysts: electric truck (good luck with that one), an electric roadster (roadster car markets is not growing that much overall - I know a thing or two about roadsters) - I think you can forget about this one btw, a model Y SUV - the competition will be tough on this segment as there are so may electric SUVs coming out, I did post a few on this blog as well. So this argument is very weak for the long term bull case.
  6. Wall Street is skeptical about TESLA. The idea is that more speculation is in the cards. I dont know how to read this one; judging by stock price action I tend to say people gambling with the stock are dumb investors; but it does not mean professional analysts will jump in with both feet; there are gamblers on WallStreet for sure, but serious investors are managing risk. I dont think TESLA stock is a good risk/reward investement. I might be wrong however.
So this is the analyst's long term case for TESLA stock.
I find this analysis a complete crap.
And you?



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