jeudi 16 juillet 2020

TESLA - the short term risks

Here is an analysis - if you can call that an analysis - on a general financial web site (read: for retail traders like us who are presented already priced in crap).

This guy looks smart (because he was on top of the bubble) but now he kind of thinks there is some risk around TESLA stock. Not 1, but 7 of them.
Fair enough, here we go:

  1. TESLA stock looks pricey
    • No bubble, just pricey 😁. That's risk numero uno!
    • If you go over the article, the guy compares it with GM and Ford; dont know why... as I said, this is a category killer (i.e. it kills categories) and not a car manufacturer (whatever this is, we dont care for now...)
    • He mentions that last Monday alone - 3 days ago - 40.000 Robinhood traders (aka milenial speculators) did buy TESLA shares. No shit!
  2. TESLA may raise money
    • Well that happened before and did not stop TESLA stock to go parabolic. For me this is not a problem. 
    • They can raise 100$ trillions, stock will go up!
  3. The electric vehicle industry seems bubbly
    • Again, nothing to do with TESLA stock which is a killer of something...
    • Dont care about its industry, this thing goes by its own
  4. TESLA faces execution risk
    • Translation: they dont really master the car building process, quality, etc.
    • Again, not a problem as this is a technoloy behemoth and not a car company
  5. S&P inclusion probably priced in
    • I already talked about that in a previous post, some analysts expect the stock to be included in the S&P 500 index and to rise a further 60% or so (dont know how they calculate that; probably they are just guessing)
    • So on this point I dont know, this guy is smarter than I am so I pass...
  6. Market looks toppy
    • Maybe but that is not a problem because central banks administer it
    • Read: a few more trillions will be thrown at markets if they go down
    • So no risk here!
  7. Musk is showing hubris of his own
    • We did cover a bit his attitude towards shorts
    • I do understand the guy is arrogant (he adds a few billions to his fortune per day), so he feels high; on top of that, he smokes pot, so we have an explanation here 😎
    • Hence no risk on this point...

There you go!
What do you think of that super analysis?


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