What are the chances for TESLA stock to crash?

This article from MarketWatch applies a Harvard research in trying to figure out what chances are there for the TESLA stock cratering.

Will it happen? Nothing is sure. Can the stock triple from here? Of course...

In the meantime, this basic comparison between how far a stock is stretched compared to S&P 500 index has the TESLA crashing risk at above 80%.  Stock is stretched more than 300% compared to S&P.

Back in February 2020, the same comparison had the TESLA stock going down at 80% chance. At the time, stock was 150% more stretched compared to S&P.  TESLA went down 60% then - it was COVID but that doesnt really matter in a huge bubble; things can turn the other way at any time, for instance while you're sleeping. 

So here it goes

Good luck speculating!