TESLA - the most dangerous stock on WallStreet

Its not because the TESLA cars are ugly or dangerous or whatever (to be honest, some models are not that pretty...)

No; its because of stupid valuations and the disconnect between the fundamentals and the share price. That TESLA is way more valued than Toyota, the most efficient car maker on the planet selling 30x more cars than TESLA is no secret for you. We did talk about it here several times.

See here and here.

The current stock price implies a market share between 40% and (hold your breath!) 110%. That means TESLA will sell not only to humans but also to people from Mars planet (which to be honest they already did start doing).

Allright, so at what level, based on current fundamentels, should the stock be? Probably 10x lower than current if we believe this analyst. Remember, that's a good valuation for TESLA; in huge bubbles like the one we currently have (which can baloon even further to be clear!), when prices correct they tend to go under fair value. So it is not impossible to find TESLA stock to much lower prices below 50$ per share.

Whatever best-case scenario you want to paint for what Tesla’s going to do –  whether they’re going to produce 30 million cars within the next 10 years, and get in the insurance business and have the same high margins as Toyota, the most efficient car company with scale of all-time – even if you do believe all that is true, the stock price is still implying that profits are going to be even bigger than that

We think this is a big, big – one of the biggest of all time – houses of cards that’s getting ready to fold.

I think around a 10th of what it is is probably appropriate if you look at, you know, kind of a reasonable level of profits. Tesla doesn’t rank in the top 10 in market share or car sales in Europe for EVs and that’s because the laws changed in Europe that have strongly incentivized the incumbent manufacturers to crank up hybrids and electric vehicles. The same is coming in the United States. I think realistically we’re talking about something closer to $50, not $500, as a real value.

There you have it; whether you believe or not, I dont care.

TESLA stock is a monstrous bubble that will implode. I dont know when (1 month, 3 years or 3 decades from now, make your guess).

There is a kind word for Elon in the article however 😁 

Trainer does credit Tesla CEO Elon Musk and the company for accelerating the trend and making electric vehicles more mainstream.

Good luck you speculators!