samedi 15 août 2020

A decade of frenzy speculation in front of us

 Here is an interesting opinion from a known strategist at Yardeny Reasearch (global investing services).

These guys sell their crap to investors around the world, so you might say its normal to promote this kind of messages. I do understand and I think to a large extent its true. But what if their prediction will become reality?

That means we have a decade of huge speculation still to go. Where is it coming from? Robotics, EVs (read TESLA), medical research (COVID crisis allows researchers to understand and produce vaccines for more coronaviruses than just COVID-19), AI, etc.

TESLA stock bubble

For one thing I can tell all those advancements will come but not to the levels Wall Street expects them.  It might be they dont expect them really but want YOU to believe they are coming. Why am I telling this? I work myself in the biomedical sector; I can tell you that a lot of products are the same old thing from 20 years ago just rebranded with new cool names (its not devices connected to a central station but rather IoT; its not a computer algorithm but AI, etc.). 

Now that being said, I'm ok with rebranding. Just keep in mind its nothing really new under the sun.

Cars (be it electrical, hydrogen moved, thermic engine, hybrid etc) will be the same. And that includes TESLA.

Other thing is worth being mentioned; these WalStreeters are so much in loved with old sayings like that of Mark Twain History doesnt repeat itself, but it often rhymes. What does this mean to stocks? In my opinion: a bit NOTHING!

This guy from Yardeni believes that stock will go up until 2029 exactly like they did in 1920s. And a depression is coming next (this is what he's suggesting). And he compares the current pandemic situation with the 1918 flu; well, its all crap imo. When I told you WallStreet is looking far far ahead; maybe a decade ahead you did not believe me 😂. Here you have it from a smart guy, not me:

For instance, he compared the coronavirus pandemic to the 1918 Spanish Flu, which killed an estimated 50 million people and infected some 500 million around the world.

The good news is that the bad news during the previous precedent was followed by the Roaring 20s, Yardeni wrote. So far, the 2020s has started with the pandemic, but there are plenty of years left for the prosperous 1920s to become a precedent for the current decade.

The key to the next boom, as it was in the 1920, will be technology-enhanced productivity.

So the guy is betting on technology; if you take a look at the technology index, Nasdaq-100 which is the playground of world speculation , it looks like we already had a decade of pure speculation there.

Stock market bubble


It can go on for another decade, everything is possible.

You know what I think? These WallStreet investors are loaded with crap to the guilts; they want dumb retail investors like you and me to buy from them. Its a money transfer mechanism in the end an its very simple; they get the money first from the FED; buy crap with it on the cheap for a few years, have PR people like Yardeni telling you how wonderful times we're living to get retail investors enthusiast about it; some of you will even make money, can you believe that? When the enthusiasm is well in place and you dont think rationally anymore, they dump the crap on you for a big profit and and get out. Than everything is going down and the world is not a beautiful place anymore. And the process repeats: get money from the FED, etc.

It worked very well for 3 decades, why it wont work this time? 

Viva la speculationes!


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